27 March 2025 | 16:00 - 18:00 (MDT)
Open Session - HYBRID
Room: UMC Second Floor - 247
Organisers: Henrieka Detlef (Aarhus University, Denmark); Albert van Wjingaarden (University of Cambridge, UK); Kerry Nickols (Ocean Visions)
Session Description:
Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and removing CO2 from the atmosphere are unlikely to cool the planet in time to avoid devastating impacts from climate change, including loss of Arctic ice. Decreases in Arctic cryosphere elements will impact ecosystems, Arctic people, and global climate. Several global tipping points under threat are cryosphere elements located in the Arctic.
A wide range of approaches have been proposed to slow the loss of Arctic ice within these categories: pollution management, protection, ice management, solar radiation modification, and surface albedo modification. Some of the approaches could be globally implemented with benefits to the Arctic (e.g., methane emissions reductions) while others would be implemented within the Arctic region (e.g., sea ice thickening). Some, but not all, of these approaches are considered climate interventions. Arctic research planning for the next decade must include evaluations of these approaches and recommendations regarding critical research topics.
This session will feature key speakers that cover the current state and potential of the approaches, social and environmental risks and co-benefits, and governance considerations. The session will also invite contributions from conference participants. It is critical that voices from the Arctic are included in discussions about these approaches. The session is intended to create a space for open, inclusive, respectful and transparent dialogue around these approaches.
Instructions for Speakers: Oral presentations in this session should be at most 10-minutes in length, with an additional 2 minutes for questions (unless more detailed instructions are provided by session conveners). See more detailed presenter instructions here.
Oral Presentations:
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unfold_moreLearning from history: How cooperation and scientific engagement could inform future climate policies — Erika Roesler
Erika Roesler 1; Cassandra Gale 2
1 Sandia National LaboratoriesFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
For thirty years, the Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) has provided a place where experts at the policy/technology nexus can explore and use science and engineering to implement confidence-building measures and create verification mechanisms for treaties and other agreements. This work begins with an overview of the Cooperative Monitoring Center at Sandia National Laboratories, highlighting how scientific collaboration aimed at deescalating regional nuclear tensions established a foundation of trust that stabilized relationships between governments. We then explore the impact of post-Cold War politics on Arctic development and research. Next, we examine how Arctic amplification, the polar loss of sea ice, and changes in Arctic ecosystems have emerged as key factors driving theoretical research on climate intervention. We then describe potential destabilization and conflict scenarios associated with both climate intervention and the lack thereof, in a risk vs. risk decision framework. Finally, we draw parallels between deescalation, climate intervention efforts, and a hypothesis regarding the origins of climate policies in the context of human history.
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unfold_moreThoughts on Regulation and Governance of Arctic Climate System Intervention Research —Martin Jeffries
Martin Jeffries 1
1 RetiredFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
Since the late 18th century, humankind has conducted a huge, uncontrolled and unregulated intervention in the global climate system by burning fossil fuels and injecting greenhouses gases into the atmosphere. The consequences, first predicted in the early 19th century (we can’t say we weren’t warned!), are now abundantly apparent. Hence the growing calls for further interventions in the climate system to reduce global heating and mitigate its consequences, not the least in the Arctic, where the effects of a warming and thawing cryosphere are spilling over into lower latitude regions. Such calls are being made when we still have an inadequate understanding, at best, of how the global climate system, the Arctic climate system, and their constituent parts – such as the cryosphere – function together, particularly feedbacks. Therefore, it is essential that if Net Zero cannot be met by reducing greenhouse emissions alone, any interventions, whatever their scale, in the climate system must be underpinned by the most rigorous, multidisciplinary research that is subject to strict and effective regulation and governance. For this is no ordinary research – lives and livelihoods are at stake, the future habitability of the planet depends on it. The primary benefit of well-regulated and -governed climate intervention research will be the identification of physically and economically viable climate intervention options, if they must occur, that are informed by unimpeachable research. Additional benefits include greatly improved numerical models at a variety of scales, strengthening of “open science”, and increased public trust in science/engineering and scientists/engineers.
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unfold_moreInvestigating Surface Thickening and Snow Flooding for Arctic Sea Ice Restoration — Jacob Pantling
Jacob Pantling 1; M Grae Worster 1; Shaun Fitzgerald 1
1 University of CambridgeFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
Any emissions pathway considered by the IPCC leads to an ice-free Arctic being likely by 2050 (https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00515-9) so we must take additional action if we are to prevent Arctic sea ice from disappearing. We are researching two proposed methods of thickening sea ice; the first, proposed by Desch et al. 2017 (https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000410), we call Surface Thickening. The idea behind Surface Thickening is to pump seawater through the sea ice and onto its surface to directly increase the thickness of the sea ice by the freezing of this seawater on the surface. The second, proposed by Pauling & Bitz 2019 (href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002136), is Snow Flooding; the idea here is to flood snow with seawater thereby consolidating the highly insulating snow layer into more conductive ice and increasing the rate of natural freezing on the base of the sea ice.
Our research focuses on understanding the underlying physics governing each of the techniques and whether they are suitable for restoring sea ice. We begin with small scale modelling and lab experiments of freshwater flowing linearly and then radially over fresh ice. The models are analysed with respect to experimental data and aid our understanding of the underlying physics. We then investigate the impact of both Surface Thickening and Snow Flooding on ice growth in one dimension with modelling based on simple assumptions and lab experiments in a cold room.
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unfold_moreFrameworks to inform cryosphere geoengineering discussions: Engaging with complex systems for dynamic thinking — Twila Moon
Twila Moon 1; Mark Carey 2; Sian Henley 3; Aurora Roth 4; Heïdi Sevestre 5; Martin Siegert 6; Leigh Stearns 7
1 University of Colorado Boulder; 2 University of Oregon; 3 University of Edinburgh; 4 Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego; 5 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme; 6 University of Exeter; 7 University of PennsylvaniaFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
Minimizing loss of the Earth’s cryosphere and minimizing risk associated with cryosphere change is an obvious common goal. Yet, this goal is overly simplistic and poorly defined, particularly as impacts, expertise, policies, and solutions are unequally spread across and within societies. As humanity faces an already warmed planet due to actions like fossil-fuel burning by limited societal sectors, and with additional warming certain at least for several decades, a number of questions arise: what can it look like to focus on successful adaptation and ongoing mitigation? Who gets to decide, why them, on what terms, and with what oversight? In this contribution, we will bring to the fore a suite of tools and frameworks to add further dimensions to the discussion on cryosphere environmental interventions, or ‘geoengineering’. These include evaluation frameworks associated with systems thinking approaches that involve multisolving – solving problems in multiple arenas at once and specifically including equity, health, well-being, and biodiversity – and assessment across social and ecological impact and adaptation categories. We will also bring forward useful frameworks regarding real and ongoing resource limits, including defining resources in a broad and diverse way, and more nuanced approaches to thinking about timescales. Ethical and justice concerns – in both current and future contexts – underscore not just diverse human impacts but also decision-making structures. This contribution will add to a dynamic, respectful, and transparent dialogue on interacting with cryospheric change in a warming world.
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unfold_moreRewilding the Arctic as a nature-based climate solution — Marc Macias Fauria
Marc Macias Fauria 1,2; Jeff Kerby 1
1 Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge; 2 Oxford University Polar Forum, University of OxfordFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
Nature-based solutions (NbS) to climate encompass climate change mitigation actions that involve working with nature. In the tundra, large-bodied herbivores enhance climate mitigation through (1) promoting open landscapes, preventing woody encroachment (linked to albedo and soil carbon capture and storage, CCS); and (2) compacting the snow layer while foraging (linked to the soil’s energy budget). Arctic large herbivores are thus linked to regional negative feedbacks to climate warming due to the above processes, but also to permafrost preservation and the avoidance of large emissions from thawed organic-rich soil. This approach to slow the loss of Arctic ice can be named Arctic rewilding.
Here, we present the case for evaluating Arctic rewilding as an approach to slow the loss of Arctic ice. Arctic rewilding’s co-benefits include enhanced Arctic biodiversity resilience, food security, nature-based tourism income, and potential for community-based management. While having a relative high reversibility, its main limitations have been identified in its scalability and the timeframe to generate noticeable impact, both stemming from very conservative estimates. We argue that Arctic rewilding’s largest challenge lies in its need for implementation over large areas, which makes early engagement by Arctic’s Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples imperative for its success.
Arctic rewilding offers a suite of potential impacts/benefits that warrant its testing at scale, and rests on a solid evidence base, in contrast to flawed NbS for climate linked to Arctic afforestation that receive large investment due to misrepresented data obtained from lower latitudes and other systems.
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unfold_moreQuantifying contributions to Arctic cooling under stratospheric aerosol injection — Alistair Duffey
Alistair Duffey 1
1 University College London, Centre for Polar Observation and ModellingFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
Climate models show that stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) would cool the earth, including the Arctic. However, it is expected that SAI with low-latitude or globally uniform injection would not fully offset greenhouse gas-forced warming in the high latitudes, particularly in winter. There are various potential contributions to this Arctic 'under-cooling', including the greater latitudinal variation in insolation than greenhouse-gas forcing, latitudinal albedo variation, forcing-dependance of local Arctic feedbacks, and the latitudinal aerosol distribution. Here, we analyse simulations of several SAI strategies conducted in the UK Earth System Model to assess the relative size of these contributions for the first time. Counter-intuitively, the Arctic surface receives more sunlight not less under many SAI simulations. This is because Arctic cloud cover decreases under global cooling, reversing the trend towards increased low cloud driven by Arctic warming and sea-ice loss. Despite this, the Arctic is still strongly cooled under global SAI, including in Winter, due to reduced poleward atmospheric heat fluxes amplified by local feedbacks. An energy-budget based feedback decomposition is used to quantify the relative contributions to Arctic under-cooling under various injection strategies.
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unfold_moreFixing the Arctic? The Unintended Consequences of Geoengineering Proposals — Letizia Tedesco
Letizia Tedesco 1; Lisa Miller 2; Odile Crabeck 3; Brent Else 4; Francois Fripiat 5; Sebastien Moreau 6; Daiki Nomura 7; Jacqueline Stefels 8; Nadja Steiner 2; Martin Vancoppenolle 9
1 Finnish Environment Institute (Syke); 2 Fisheries and Oceans Canada; 3 University of Liege; 4 University of Calgary; 5 Université Libre de Bruxelles; 6 Norwegian Polar Institute; 7 Hokkaido University; 8 University of Groningen; 9 LOCEANFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
As global climate warming intensifies, various geoengineering strategies have been proposed to restore Arctic sea ice. Two prominent approaches—seawater flooding in winter to thicken sea ice and spreading artificial snow made of reflective glass microspheres—have gained attention for their potential to enhance surface albedo and slow sea-ice melt.
However, the effectiveness of these interventions is increasingly questioned, with recent studies highlighting possible unintended consequences. Both techniques are predicted to alter light transmission and gas fluxes, and disrupt algal phenology, potentially leading to mismatches in zooplankton feeding and affecting the broader Arctic food web. Additionally, the silica content in glass beads has the potential for fertilization effects on marine algal blooms, favouring diatoms and disrupting natural algal succession.
Given the large-scale infrastructure and invasive nature of these methods, there is an urgent need for comprehensive numerical studies to assess their long-term impacts on Arctic biogeochemistry and ecosystems. Even small-scale field tests should be approached cautiously and should include rigorous biogeochemical studies to evaluate unintended consequences on local and larger scales. In addition to environmental impacts, these strategies raise significant ethical, legal, and political challenges that must also be considered.
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unfold_moreLocal Acceptability and Sustainability of Ice Sheet Conservation by Seabed Anchored Curtain in Ilulissat Icefjord, Greenland — Ilona Mettiäinen
Ilona Mettiäinen 1; Parnaq Iversen 2; John C. Moore 1
1 Arctic Centre, University of Lapland; 2 Parnaq Translations, University of GreenlandFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
Ice sheet conservation by seabed anchored curtain (SAC) is a cryospheric climate intervention method suggested for stabilizing the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets for reducing global sea level rise.
We conducted a case study on sustainability and local acceptability of SAC in Ilulissat Icefjord, the outlet fjord of Sermeq Kujalleq or Jakobshavn Glacier in North West Greenland. The study was conducted as a transdisciplinary knowledge co-production or co-design process with the local, mostly indigenous community in Ilulissat in the vicinity of the Icefjord. The conditions for local acceptability and sustainability are essential questions to be considered besides efficiency and technical feasibility.
The results show that SAC would largely not have local acceptance in this location. The curtain was deemed unsustainable for various reasons including the local and global value of the Icefjord; disbelief in the efficiency and technical feasibility of the method; potential negative impacts on local livelihoods, particularly fishing; distrust and history of colonialism; and the indigenous view on the relationship between humans and nature. Moreover, climate change mitigation and other environmental issues were prioritized.
The study is a global first on the local community dimensions regarding SAC with an Arctic, mostly indigenous local community. More research on climate interventions and their impacts on local communities with the communities is needed for finding more locally acceptable, sustainable and just co-designs of the methods, for informing scientific inquiry by inclusive and equitable research, and for enabling informed decision-making and governance of climate interventions in the future.
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unfold_moreProgress in Sea Ice Surface Albedo Modification — Stephanie Olinger
Stephanie Olinger 1; Annette Eros 1
1 Arctic Ice ProjectFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet as a result of a set of feedback loops referred to as Arctic amplification. In particular, atmospheric and oceanic warming shrink the areal extent of Arctic sea ice, which reduces the overall reflectivity of the Arctic, and in turn encourage further warming. Yet strategies for mitigating the effects of Arctic warming remain understudied, due both to continued controversy surrounding deliberate climate intervention and the challenging nature of the problem. Here, we present ongoing work that seeks to understand whether surface albedo modification (SAM) could be used as a tool to reduce the rate of Arctic sea ice melt and slow the rapid pace of Arctic warming. Current research focuses on characterizing the optical and material properties of hollow glass microspheres (HGMs), a class of reflective, low density, silica-based materials that may be able to increase the albedo of sea ice surfaces. We additionally present the results of a climate modeling study that seeks to identify areas of the Arctic that maximize the efficiency of SAM with respect to treatment area. Finally, we discuss the results of an ocean transport modeling study that identifies the spatially-varying concentration of HGMs in ocean water following a hypothetical deployment. These results provide key inputs that shape envisioned deployment strategy and inform ecotoxicological research that seeks to understand and minimize potential environmental hazard.
Poster Presentations (during Poster Exhibit and Session on Wednesday 26 March):
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unfold_moreSpray Mechanism Development for Marine Cloud Brightening — Dante McGrath
Dante McGrath 1
1 University of CambridgeFormat: Poster in-person
Poster number: #24
Abstract:
Arctic sea ice plays a vital role in the Earth’s energy balance, regulating global temperatures by reflecting solar radiation back into space. This natural defence is in a perilous state of decline due to global warming, such that an ice-free end-of-summer appears imminent. The melting of Arctic sea ice has a cascade effect on the Earth’s climate, contributing to rising sea levels, adverse ocean and air currents, and thawing permafrost, which have severe impacts on lives and livelihoods. In spite of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the immediacy of these risks has motivated the study of climate intervention. A climate intervention technique that has received growing attention is marine cloud brightening (MCB). MCB involves spraying microscale seawater droplets into the atmosphere to deliver nanoscale salt crystals to low-lying clouds; these crystals trigger cloud droplet formation, which can enhance cloud reflectivity, thereby contributing to localised cooling. Although theory and computational models have furthered understanding of MCB and its impacts, a paucity of knowledge exists as to its practical feasibility, especially concerning the generation of optimal sprays. Our work aims to develop an energy-efficient and scalable spray generation system that provides salt crystals of optimal size and quantity for MCB. In this presentation, we compare various approaches undergoing experimental and computational investigation. For each, we outline benefits, limitations, and technical challenges of laboratory and field experimentation.
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unfold_moreImpacts of Logistically Constrained High Latitude, Low Altitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Scenarios — Lauren Wheeler
Lauren Wheeler 1; Benjamin Wagman 1; Wake Smith 2
1 Sandia National Laboratories; 2 Yale University, Harvard Kennedy SchoolFormat: Poster in-person
Poster number: #88
Abstract:
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) has shown potential to mitigate some of the worst effects of climate change in the Arctic by reducing temperatures, preserving Northern Hemisphere sea ice, reducing Greenland Ice Sheet melt, and reducing permafrost loss. However, logistical constraints, such as aircraft capabilities and delivery timelines, have not been included in many simulations of SAI and should be considered to understand the potential impacts. Building from Wheeler et al. (2024), we present high latitude, low altitude SAI scenarios designed with logistical constraints. Using aircraft deployment parameters, estimates of aircraft delivery timelines, we calculate an annual injection rate which is then simulated in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The scenarios focus exclusively on the logistics of the aircraft platform and its production and delivery timelines. We do not include considerations for program authorization and termination, or governance structures. The findings demonstrate the effects of incorporating logistical deployment constraints in the design of SAI scenarios to ensure strong scientific understanding of Polar SAI, the regional and global effects, and facilitate understanding of the risks and benefits.
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unfold_moreOcean Visions’ sea ice road map: an assessment of proposed approaches to slow the loss of Arctic sea ice — Kerry Nickols
Kerry Nickols 1; David Koweek 1; Sarah Mastroni 1; Bridget Shayka 1; Brad Ack 1
1 Ocean VisionsFormat: Poster in-person
Poster number: #477
Abstract:
Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and removing CO2 from the atmosphere, while necessary for climate stabilization, are unlikely to cool the planet in time to avoid devastating impacts from climate change. Arctic sea ice stabilizes global climate through its high reflectivity and is in danger of disappearing during the summer in the coming decades, harming ecosystems, Arctic people, and global climate. Ocean Visions led a collaborative process to assess potential approaches to slow the loss of Arctic sea ice guided by an international advisory board. The <a href="https://www2.oceanvisions.org/roadmaps/repair/arctic-sea-ice/">Arctic sea ice road map</a>, available on an interactive digital platform, reviews the current state and potential of 21 approaches, their social and environmental risks and co-benefits, and governance considerations. The approaches fall within five categories: protection, pollution management, ice management, solar radiation modification, and surface albedo modification. Some approaches could be implemented outside the Arctic with benefits to the Arctic (e.g., methane emissions reductions) while others would need to be implemented within the Arctic region (e.g., sea ice thickening). 15 of the approaches could be technically feasible within 10 years, making it increasingly important to understand these approaches, and their potential consequences, now. Across most of the approaches there are substantial knowledge gaps concerning governance and justice that must be front and center in any work to foster inclusive and transparent decision-making. The road map identifies priorities that need to be addressed to advance understanding for informed decision-making about research into and potential use of any of these tools.