3.10. Arctic Riverine Systems and Communities: Changes, Adaptations, and Future Research Priorities

28 March 2025 | 10:30 - 12:30 (MDT)

Open Session - HYBRID

Room:  UMC Second Floor - 235

Organisers: Alexander Shiklomanov (University of New Hampshire, USA); Andrey N. Petrov (ARCTICenter, University of Northern Iowa, USA); Marya Rozanova-Smith (The George Washington University, USA)

Session Description:

Many Arctic communities are located along the rivers. Rivers play a major role in supporting the Indigenous livelihoods in the Arctic throughout the millennia and enable transportation, commercial activity, and subsistence practices today. In recent decades, Arctic rivers and their basins have experienced dramatic changes with respect to hydroclimatic regimes, biological diversity, environmental conditions, and industrial development. Although significant efforts have been lately devoted to highlighting, understanding, and addressing multiple challenges faced by coastal Arctic communities, riverine social-ecological systems (SES), specifically, received relatively limited attention. This Session will gather papers focused on riverine Arctic SES and communities to elicit state-of-the-art knowledge about key changes and challenges and identify research priorities within the context of the ICARP IV process.

The Session is organized by the Project "Socio-Ecological Systems Transformation in River basins of the sub-Arctic under climate change" (SESTRA).

Instructions for Speakers:  Oral presentations in this session should be at most 8-minutes in length, with an additional 2 minutes for questions (unless more detailed instructions are provided by session conveners). See more detailed presenter instructions here.

Oral Presentations: 

• unfold_moreStudies in Selenge river basin for understanding Socio-Ecological Systems Transformation in the sub-Arctic under climate change (SESTRA Project) — Mariia Kuklina 

  Mariia Kuklina ¹; Vera Kuklina ²; Enkh-Amgalan Sandag ³; Andrey Petrov ^{1
  1} University of Northern Iowa; ² The George Washington University; ³ Institute of Geography & Geo ecology, Mongolian Academy of Science

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  Selenge River basin is undergoing significant environmental, social, and economic shifts due to climate change comparable with the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. At the same time, socio-cultural and political-economic transformations in the region during the last decades also play an important role in changes of the hydrological regime of the river. Using this example, this project examines the complex interactions between climate, water systems, and society in the Selenge River basin. By engaging local and Indigenous communities and other stakeholders, we examine the impacts of these changes on people, ecosystems, and infrastructure, and to develop adaptation strategies. The research, conducted by an interdisciplinary team, focuses on analyzing hydroclimatic and environmental changes, socioeconomic shifts, and community engagement to provide scenarios for future adaptation options. Through transdisciplinary integration, engagement of local and Indigenous knowledge, and community involvement, the project aims to address the challenges posed by climate change and contribute to international collaboration. Additionally, it includes the participation of local and Indigenous artists and offers training programs for students and early career scientists. This research not only benefits Mongolian communities but also provides insights applicable to the broader Arctic and sub-Arctic areas, helping to navigate the complexities of environmental change and build resilience in vulnerable communities.

• unfold_moreLocal Climate Change Narratives – Sense of Place and Future Imaginaries in Changing River Communities — Sterre Koops 

  Sterre Koops ^{1 
  1} University of Groningen, Hanze University of Applied Sciences

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  The ongoing environmental changes in the Arctic call for a deeper understanding of how local communities experience and adapt to these transformations. This research examines sense of place and how this shapes future climate imaginaries within riverine communities, focusing on the Altaelva community in northern Norway. Utilizing qualitative methods, I explore how individuals and groups form emotional and cognitive attachments to the environment while living in a changing climate.

  In northern Peru, the community has long experienced alternating environmental changes due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, nowadays intensified by climate change. By examining how these communities adapt to cyclical environmental shifts, this casestudy provides comparative insights relevant to the Arctic, where climate change presents a more linear, continuous impact.

  This research investigates locally rooted visions of climate futures that are informed by the community's sense of place, so-called “emplaced climate imaginaries”. By focusing on how the community’s attachment to the river influences their perceptions of future climate scenarios, I aim to identify the ways in which these imaginaries contribute to sustainable adaptation strategies.

  The study’s focus on the intersection of emotional bonds to place and anticipatory climate futures offers insights into how Arctic communities cope with and adapt to environmental change. These findings will contribute to broader discussions on climate resilience, emphasizing the importance of integrating local narratives and experiences into climate adaptation policies. The research not only provides a lens into Arctic futures but also underscores the role of local, place-based attachments in shaping responses to climate change.

• unfold_moreRecent discoveries in river hydrological processes relevant to communities and ecosystems in northern and western Alaska, USA — Christopher D. Arp 

  Christopher D. Arp ¹, Dana N. Brown, Allen C. Bondurant, Katie S. Drew, Mary Szatkowski, Melanie Engram, and Katie V. Spellman
  ¹ University of Alaska Fairbanks

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  Understanding how riverine social-ecological systems are responding to climate and hydrological changes in the Arctic requires both long-term observations and community collaboration. Here we share two recent discoveries using these approaches: one in the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska documenting flow regimes shifts in collaboration with the Bureau of Land Management and the other comes from studying freeze-up on the Yukon and Kuskokwim rivers in collaboration with Fresh Eyes on Ice, a community-based monitoring network. River gauging of northern coastal watersheds since 2001 shows a shift from snowmelt-dominated runoff towards rainfall flow generation in relation to declining sea ice. River channel responses to this form of hydrological intensification have implications for erosion and sedimentation, permafrost degradation, aquatic habitat, subsistence fisheries, and village and industrial infrastructure. In western Alaska where river-side communities rely on winter ice cover for subsistence and transportation, incomplete freeze-up in the form of open-water zones (OWZs) present hazards. Using a combination of remote sensing, field studies, and local knowledge, we found that the majority of large and persistent OWZs form below ice jams during freeze-up due to interupted ice transport and ice-affected hydraulics. This understanding, coupled with new techniques for OWZ detection, can lead to improved community safety and adaptation. Together these discoveries from Alaskan rivers point toward the continued need for long-term observations, field studies, and community engagement.

• unfold_moreModeling hydrology with tree rings to enhance decision making for Arctic communities — Irina Panyushkina 

  Irina Panyushkina ¹; David Meko ^{1
  1} University of Arizona

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  Tree rings are widely recognized as valuable proxies for past climate modeling, providing insights into temperature in cold climates and precipitation in arid regions over the last 2,000 years. In the Arctic, tree rings records have been traditionally used for temperature reconstructions and their spatial patters for atmospheric circulation indices. However, recent advancements in statistical methods, combined with new field collections of tree rings, have enabled successful reconstructions of streamflow for major Siberian rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean. We present a perspective on using tree-ring proxies across Northern Eurasia to examine historical variations in hydrological parameters, such as snow, rainfall, soil moisture, active-layer depth, and river discharge, in relation to land surface temperature in the Arctic. We discuss examples of tree-ring reconstructions of seasonal streamflow and flood events in the Ob and Yenisei River basins using multiple tree-ring parameters (ring width, wood density and quantitative wood anatomy). Furthermore, we explore innovative applications of tree rings in studies of thermokarst dynamics, boreal forest expansion, light availability for plants, air pollution, and water quality. Despite their potential, the power of tree rings as bioindicators is often overlooked by the engineering community and natural resource managers. Involving tree-ring data is crucial for detecting changes in Arctic riverine systems and projecting the adaptation of local communities. Tree rings provide valuable historical context for hydrological processes in the Arctic experiencing the amplified response to climate forcing, enhancing the accuracy and robustness of decision-making in resource management and climate adaptation strategies.

• unfold_moreThe Arctic Rivers Project: A co-produced assessment of the climate sensitivity of Alaskan & Yukon rivers and fish to support resilient communities — Peyton Thomas 

  Peyton Thomas ^{1 
  1} CU-Boulder

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  Northern communities in Alaska and Canada rely upon rivers to access fishing and hunting grounds and to transport supplies. As the Arctic continues to warm, the ultimate impacts on people, their fisheries, and travel corridors are highly uncertain. Improved understanding of ongoing and possible future changes requires close partnerships among Indigenous groups and researchers from diverse scientific disciplines. The Arctic Rivers Project strives to increase a collective understanding of the impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities across Alaska and the Yukon River Basin. This is accomplished through Indigenous community-based monitoring, multidisciplinary models, and developing narratives of change from community members themselves. In this presentation, we will discuss the results of fish bioenergetics model outputs as these relate to community interests across the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region. Based on model outputs, summer water temperatures across the region are projected to warm by 1.44°C, on average, by mid-century (2034-2065) compared to historical conditions (1990-2021). Despite widespread warming, some river basins, such as the T’ee Drin J’ik, Andreafsky, and Aniak, are simulated to be more resilient to warming than others, which may offer more thermal refugia for commonly harvested Arctic fishes such as Chinook salmon, Dolly Varden, Broad Whitefish, and Burbot. Changes to basin-level thermal regimes may impact fish population fitness and habitat preferences. Thus, future community harvests may shift based on species resilience, and future Arctic fisheries research should engage with and prioritize community-specific interests.

• unfold_moreSocio-Ecological Systems TRansformations in the pan-Arctic (SESTRA Project): Climate Change Impacts on Riverine Communities in Alaska and Mongolia — Alexander Shiklomanov 

  Alexander Shiklomanov ¹; Vladimir Alexeev ²; Andrey Petrov ³; Marya Rozanova-Smith ^{4
  1} University of New Hampshire; ² University of Alaska, Fairbanks; ³ University of North Iowa; ⁴ George Washington University

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  The collaborative project SESTRA aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the complex interactions between climate change, hydrology, the cryosphere, and human processes in the pan-Arctic to enhance local and regional resilience and adaptive capacity.

  Now in its second year, the project presents an analysis of hydroclimatic changes and their impacts on human activities and ecosystem services in two mid-size watersheds: the Kuskokwim River in Alaska and the Selenge River in Mongolia.

  The preliminary analysis of hydrometeorological phenomena, based on historical data, model simulations, field observations, and input from local stakeholders and gatekeepers, reveals significant changes in many climatic and hydrologic variables, considerably impacting local communities. These preliminary results underscore the urgent need for adaptation and resilience strategies to address the new emerging environmental and socioeconomic challenges these communities face.

  The SESTRA project acknowledges the valuable contributions of Indigenous knowledge-holders in Alaska communities, whose traditional knowledge provided highly valuable insights for the project's research and its understanding of climate change impacts and community resilience.

  The key project’s findings can be found on the project website https://sestra-rivers.org and the most the data used for the analysis is accessible through the Rapid Integrated Mapping and Analysis System for SESTRA (SESTRA-RIMS), an online tool for data sharing, exchange, and operational analysis: https://sestra.unh.edu.

• unfold_moreWill the pace of riverbank erosion accelerate in a warming Arctic? — Emily Geyman 

  Emily Geyman ¹; Madison Douglas ¹; Jean-Philippe Avouac ¹; Michael Lamb ^{1
  1} California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  The rate of river migration affects the stability of Arctic infrastructure and regulates the fluxes of carbon, nutrients, and sediment to the oceans. However, predicting how the pace of river migration will change in a warming Arctic has so far been stymied by conflicting observations about whether permafrost primarily acts to slow or accelerate river migration. We develop new computational methods that enable the detection of riverbank erosion at length scales 5–10x smaller than the pixel size in satellite imagery, an innovation that unlocks the ability to quantify riverbank erosion at the sub-monthly timescales when rivers undergo their largest variations in water temperature and flow. We use these high-frequency observations to constrain the extent to which erosion is limited by the thermal condition of melting the pore ice cementing bank sediment (a requirement that will disappear when permafrost thaws), versus the mechanical condition of having sufficient flow to transport the sediment comprising the riverbanks (a condition experienced by all rivers). Analysis of high-resolution data from the Koyukuk River, Alaska, reveals that the presence of permafrost reduces erosion rates by 47%. Using our observations, we calibrate and validate a numerical model that can be applied to diverse Arctic rivers. The model predicts that full permafrost thaw may lead to a 30% to 100% increase in the migration rates of Arctic rivers.

• unfold_moreFrequency of Dzud and its impact on traditional nomadic livestock of Mongolia — Sandag Enkh-Amgalan 

  Sandag Enkh-Amgalan ¹; Vera Kuklina ²; Mariia Kuklina ³; Gombo Gerelmaa ⁴; Andrey Petrov ^{3 
  1} Mongolia; ² Department of Geography, George Washington University; ³ ARCTICenter, Geography Department, University of Northern Iowa; ⁴ International University of Ulaanbaatar

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  Mongolia is a country of pastoralism. Traditional pastoralism emerged as a result of natural selection in Mongolia’s extreme climatic and ecological conditions, as well as centuries-old livestock breeding practices and the life experiences of the herders. Mongolia is characterized by migrations and grazing across four seasons of the year, and is the only livestock farming system in the world that has retained its original identity. In recent years, a “Dzud” has become a major challenge for livestock farming. Dzud is hazard caused by a combination of extreme cold, heavy snowfall and strong winds that kills millions of cattle and reindeer and causes catastrophic damage to villages, infrastructure and nomads. According to historical research, the incidence of the “Great Zud” has increased over the past 300 years. In this presentation, we will look at the impact of climate change on the frequency of dzuds, which also affects Mongolia’s traditional nomadic livestock.

 

Poster Presentations (during Poster Exhibit and Session on Wednesday 26 March): 

• unfold_moreImpacts of Salmon Declines and Dietary Changes on Mercury Exposure in Alaska Native Communities — M. Isabel Smith 

  M. Isabel Smith ¹; Anna Godduhn ²; Marie Lowe ³; John Magyar ⁴; Edda Mutter ²; Emily Seelen ⁵; A. Joshua West ^{1 
  1} University of Southern California; ² Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council; ³ University of Alaska Anchorage; ⁴ California Institute of Technology; ⁵ University of Alaska Fairbanks

  Format: Poster in-person

  Poster number: #245

  Abstract:

  Due to the warmer water temperatures driven by climate change, the Yukon River has seen declines in the salmon population. Commercial fishing on the Yukon for chinook salmon ceased in 2007, and chum salmon fishing has been scarce. However in recent years, salmon runs have been so poor that even subsistence fishing has been banned since 2019. Historically, Alaska Native communities rely heavily on subsistence fishing and eat large amounts of salmon. However due to poor salmon runs, these communities are having to turn to alternative fish species and food sources.

  These shifts in diet may raise concerns pertaining to human health and mercury (Hg) exposure. While all forms of mercury are harmful to humans, methylmercury (MeHg) has the ability to bioaccumulate in the body. The main source of human MeHg exposure is through diet, most commonly fish consumption. Studies have found that some Indigenous communities have disproportionately elevated blood Hg levels correlated to dietary exposure. As Alaska Native communities shift away from salmon to other species of fish or even processed foods, we may see changes in their Hg exposure. To better understand these effects, this work explores potential scenarios for changes in dietary Hg load, informed by data on fish consumption and Hg contents in the Yukon Basin.

• unfold_moreErosion, Water Quality, and Adaptive Capacity in the Yukon River Watershed — Marie Lowe 

  Marie Lowe ¹; Michael Lamb ²; Woodward Fischer ²; John Magyar ²; Yutian Ke ²; Emily Geyman ²; Josh Anadu ²; Josh West ³; Isabel Smith ³; Edda Mutter ⁴; Anna Godduhn ^{4
  1} University of Alaska Anchorage; ² California Institute of Technology; ³ University of Southern California; ⁴ Yukon River Intertribal Watershed Council

  Format: Poster in-person

  Poster number: #480

  Abstract:

  Preliminary findings from convergence research conducted on erosion impacts to Alaska Native communities in the Yukon River Watershed demonstrate how some villages are experiencing accelerating erosion rates of up to 40 feet per year. Each partner community working with the research team is affected by erosion in different ways and have different resources at their disposal to adapt to it. What they all have in common, however, is the challenge of having to navigate a fractured and complicated governance structure as well as piecemeal together grant funding from the federal government to address this issue. Better understanding of riverbank erosion, its impacts, and potential responses could help in navigating these challenges. With this goal, three research groups working with partner communities are examining: (1) permafrost-riverbank erosion dynamics and sediment distribution impacts; (2) how erosion affects water chemistry and quality, including via mercury and microbial populations; and (3) policy options for increasing local adaptive capacity through improvements in planning processes and collaborative governance participation. The three research themes converge in broader impacts of the project: we are collaborating with communities through social learning on how to bridge the gap between federal assistance priorities and Alaska community needs. We are collectively working on erosion action planning to address imminent threats to subsistence and public infrastructure, housing, as well as community health and resilience. We have also engaged with local schools and summer camps to familiarize students with riverbank erosion processes and water quality issues.