3.11. Arctic Disaster Risk Reduction

27 March 2025 | 16:00 - 18:00 (MDT)

Open Session - HYBRID

Room:  UMC Third Floor - 386

Organisers:  Anne Garland (Applied Research in Environmental Sciences Nonprofit, Inc.); Elise D. Miller Hooks (George Mason University, USA)

Session Description:

To improve Arctic Disaster Risk Reduction (ADRR), trans disciplinary approaches are needed to facilitate greater cooperation, communication and exchange among pan Arctic researchers and practitioners to mitigate all hazards, especially with small, remote communities. Our session aims to emphasize assistance to regional and local decision-makers through the sharing and facilitation of applied research, best practices, research gaps, and greater inter-operability through improved networking, such as joint exercises, workshops, radio programs, virtual communications, and interactive websites. Importantly, we seek examples of facilitating knowledge, like an ecosystem map, for timely, friendly, and accessible information about hazard sciences in Arctic environments for operational applications. We emphasize studies about Knowledge Systems, i.e., traditional ecological and/or local, that include emerging risks from environmental changes, increased maritime traffic, and/or expanding economic development to build capacity for ADRR in small, remote communities and contributions to UNDRR, the Sendai Framework 2015, and/or for EPPR missions of the Arctic Council. The participants for our session can include researchers who apply Arctic science about DRR, Risk and Emergency Management Offices, Coast Guard, Search and Rescue, regional jurisdictions, community organizations, and/or corporations throughout the Arctic, etc. Expect updates about an Arctic Risk Management Network (ARMNet) as a trans disciplinary hub to facilitate research to practice, sponsored by the US Embassy in Ottawa CA, with a 2015 feasibility study, and plans for a NSF Research Coordinator Network to emphasize rapid risks and applied innovations in partnership with small, remote communities. ADRR research to practice examples and participation in ARMNet are welcomed.

Instructions for Speakers:  Oral presentations in this session should be at most 12-minutes in length, with an additional 2-3 minutes for questions (unless more detailed instructions are provided by session conveners). See more detailed presenter instructions here.

Oral Presentations: 

• unfold_morePolycrisis: An Emerging Framework for Homeland Security and Emergency Management Applications? — Judy Boyd 

  Judy Boyd ^{1 
  1} The Arctic Institute

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  The increased use of the term ‘polycrisis’ since 2022 by economists, scientists and policymakers reflects a growing awareness across disciplines of the compounding impact caused when multiple extreme and harmful emergencies converge. This presentation summarizes the emerging theoretical elements of polycrisis, to include the key concepts of causal mechanisms, feedback loops, and intersectionality of systems. It goes on to explain how these concepts provide a useful framework for reflecting the state of the world, analyzing current events and modeling different futures in global systems. However, there is very little research to date on its use below the global level. This presentation aims to build out this nascent field’s body of knowledge by using a case study of events affecting the Alaskan village of Newtok to assess if the emerging polycrisis analysis framework can be modified and applied to systems interacting at all levels—local, regional, national, and global. It concludes that the importance and relevance of the polycrisis framework is in building awareness of the interconnectedness of what otherwise may seem to be disparate elements or stressors taking their toll on the earth and its people. Its lasting value will be the degree to which insight translates to action by homeland security and emergency preparedness professionals.

• unfold_moreBeyond Physical Hazards: Addressing "Intangible" Risks in Glacierized Environments for a Sustainable Future — Carmen Margiotta 

  Carmen Margiotta ^{1 
  1} Lund University's Centre for Sustainability Science (LUCSUS)

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  As glaciers across the Arctic and other regions rapidly retreat, the focus of disaster risk reduction (DRR) has largely centered on physical hazards, i.e., glacial lake outburst floods. However, these glacierized landscapes are also home to communities that face a broader set of risks, many of which remain largely overlooked in risk research. The work presented addresses “intangible” risks associated with glacier retreat, including loss of cultural continuity, social cohesion, and sense of place. These non-physical risks are critical to understanding the full spectrum of vulnerabilities faced by glacial and Arctic communities, yet they are often neglected in policy discussions and risk assessments. Drawing from ethnographic work with rural communties in the Indian Himalayas, Chilean Andes, and Scandinavia, this session critiques the existing body of knowledge on climate risk. It argues that current frameworks are too narrowly focused on immediate, tangible hazards and fail to account for the deeper, long-term impacts that glacial retreat has on cultural and social systems. In regions where glaciers are deeply embedded in the cultural and emotional landscapes of Indigenous and local communities, these losses pose significant threats to identity, well-being, and social stability. This presentation advocates for a broader, more inclusive approach to DRR: one that considers intangible risks alongside physical hazards. Integrating these socio-cultural dimensions into (A)DRR planning and policies can create more resilient and sustainable futures for glacial communities. This session showcases case studies from regions beyond the Arctic to stimulate dialogue across contexts, and to encourage policymakers and researchers alike to rethink how risk is assessed and mitigated.

• unfold_moreHotspot Analysis of Bering Sea and Strait Vessel Traffic in International Maritime Organization's ‘Areas to be Avoided’ — Izabella Block 

  Izabella Block ¹; Jennifer Schmidt ¹; Kelly Kapsar ²; Jen Dillon ^{3
  1} University of Alaska Anchorage- Institute of Social and Economic Research; ² Michigan State University; ³ Marine Exchange of Alaska

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  Decreasing Arctic sea ice is making travel through the Bering Strait via new shipping routes a contemporary reality. Increased shipping in the region not only intensifies the impact and contact to remote communities but causes concern for vessel operator safety and the environment. It is vital to analyze the effectiveness of existing monitoring programs, such as the International Maritime Organization’s ‘Areas to be Avoided’ (ATBA), for cargo traffic within the Bering Sea. Lessons learned in other regions can be used to develop a framework for mitigating effects of increasing traffic in new shipping areas such as the Bering Strait. This study’s methodology includes vessel traffic hot-spot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) in the Aleutian Islands and Bering Strait to determine changes in traffic patterns from 2015 to 2022, and therefore the effectiveness of existing policy, as well as vessel pattern use of community infrastructure. Vessel traffic can also change due to interventions from third party organizations, such as Marine Exchange of Alaska (MXAK). We analyzed data from MXAK to determine if vessel characteristics and operator interaction affected travel routes. Analysis shows implementation of Aleutian Island ATBAs changed vessel traffic patterns. Though not all vessel traffic in the Bering Strait is subject to current ATBA policy guidelines, we anticipate traffic patterns in the region will change with the implementation of similar ATBA and routing measures for cargo and tanker vessels. Determining the current effects and future outcomes of vessel routing measures will be necessary for policymaking to protect these unique regions of Alaska.

• unfold_moreUncertainty propagation in incident prediction for Arctic vessel traffic — Rajesh Kandel 

  Rajesh Kandel ¹; Hiba Baroud ¹; Alice DuVivier ²; Sydney Lin ¹; Ralf Bennartz ^{1 
  1} Vanderbilt University; ² National Center for Atmospheric Research

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  As Arctic ship traffic rises due to increasingly ice-free conditions, understanding risk to ship traffic is critical. We propose using data on historical ship movements and incidents to develop a data-driven risk analysis framework. This involves assessing incident likelihood and identifying probable incident types during voyages using data-driven models. Models use vessel traffic data, incident records, and climate data as input.

  A critical challenge in this analysis is the propagation of uncertainty from multiple sources, including from climate data inputs such as wind speed, sea-ice concentration, temperature, and maximum wave height. Additionally, machine learning (ML) models used for prediction introduce further uncertainty, particularly in the estimation of incident likelihood and type during Arctic voyages.

  This study explores how uncertainty propagates from the climate data inputs onto ML-based models for incident prediction, and subsequently, onto the incident type prediction. The study aims to quantify the uncertainties attributable to climate data and model prediction variability and assess the propagation of uncertainty on to the framework’s outcome. Climate variable outputs from five CESM2 ensemble members represent the uncertainty in input data. Additionally, bootstrapping is used to train multiple models to show model prediction variability.

  Predicted probabilities of incident classes for each incident record are obtained as distributions that represent the prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty from input data is observed to be greater than from the models. These predictions will inform the mapping of risk levels across Arctic shipping routes, offering a comprehensive view of the conditions where incidents are more likely to occur.

• unfold_moreFocus of an ARMNet Research Network on Innovative Resources and Applications: A risk-constrained maritime cargo flow optimization model for predicting changes from declining sea ice — Anne Garland 

  Anne Garland ¹; Liane Benoit ²; Elise Miller-Hooks ³; Li Wenjie ³; Alireza Azadnia ^{3
  1} Applied Research in Environmental Sciences Nonprofit Inc.; ² Benoit and Associates; ³ George Mason University

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  The Arctic Risk Management Network (ARMNet) is a transdisciplinary hub 1. to facilitate cooperation, communication and exchange among EM practitioners, SAR, ADRR networks, and researchers engaged in the study, management and mitigation of risks and hazards in small, remote communities throughout the Arctic. 2. to support interoperability in mitigation and response to hazards through sharing of research, best practices, lessons learned, and case studies on an interactive website to include presentations, discussion forums, webinars, meetings, newsletters, and videos. 3. to provide a user-friendly platform about Arctic hazards from environmental effects, increased maritime polar traffic, expanding economic development, and to facilitate innovative applications to reduce risks. For example, a new (NSF NNA) resource is a Risk-constrained Maritime Cargo Flow Optimization Model for Predicting Changes in Global Cargo Vessel Traffic given Declining Arctic Sea Ice because ice-class vessels can better navigate Arctic waters. This model uses an optimization-based solution for changes in global maritime cargo and cruiser flows in projected environmental scenarios. The model accounts for risk of incidents along three Arctic passageways, corresponding ice-class vessels, icebreaker escort requirements, lower speeds, increased insurance premiums, accident probabilities, and constraints on path-based maximum risk exposure. The outcome is seasonal future maritime trade flows along key routes to include Arctic routes. Predictions can prepare companies and regions for a changing maritime landscape, such as infrastructure investments, risks and benefits for communities and marine ecosystems to include estimates of Arctic emissions to assess reduction strategies, e. g., carbon taxes.  Applications of this maritime resource are welcomed.

• unfold_moreReducing Local and Regional Risk in the Arctic through Capacity Building with Drones — Jessica Garron 

  Jessica Garron ¹; John Henry Jr ²; Margaret Hall ³; Mike DeLue ⁴; Barbara Cozzens ⁵; Spencer Anderson ⁶; Arina Didriksen ^{7  
  1} University of Alaska Fairbanks, International Arctic Research Center, Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center; ² Native Village of Unalakleet; ³ Model Forest Policy Program; ⁴ University of Alaska Fairbanks, International Arctic Research Center, Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center; ⁵ Whistling Thorn Strategies, Rutgers School of Business-Camden; ⁶ Utah State University, ADAC ARCTIC; ⁷ University of Alaska Fairbanks, ADAC ARCTIC  

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  Documenting climate-driven impacts on Arctic communities and using this information for planning and emergency response activities can increase community resilience and reduce risks to housing, infrastructure, and traditional practices in those places. To build community capacity for using drones to document acute and chronic climate impacts that drive decision-making, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security funded a project to train members of the Alaska Native Village of Unalakleet (NVU) to fly USA-made drones to delineate floods, examine infrastructure, detect/monitor oil spills, and perform search and rescue activities. This drone team was subsequently contracted by the USCG and FEMA during the 2022 Typhoon Merbok emergency response in Western Alaska to remotely provide the only aerial imagery available of the impacted communities for the first two weeks of the response to the incident command post in Anchorage, AK. This team has now been funded to increase regional capacity in Western Alaska by creating a regional drone community of practice (DCoP) to support homeland security and community resilience through technical upskilling of Alaskans living along the Bering Sea. This current effort is designed for sustainability through workforce development, collaborative partnerships with Arctic climate scientists, integration of the DCoP into the Alaskan search and rescue community, and training program transition within the region and the homeland security enterprise. This presentation will illustrate lessons learned and successful strategies for reducing Alsakan community risk by increasing regional capacity for using drones to monitor climate impacts and community infrastructure for informed planning and decision-making.

• unfold_moreMapping Resilience: Collaborative Approaches to Risk and Community Preparedness in Alaska — Michelle Ritchie 

  Michelle Ritchie ^{1 
  1} University of Georgia

  Format: Oral in-person

  Abstract:

  This presentation highlights a collaborative interdisciplinary project funded by the National Science Foundation’s Navigating the New Arctic titled, “Collaborative Research: NNA Research: Arctic, Climate, and Earthquakes: Seismic Resilience and Adaptation of Arctic Infrastructure and Social Systems amid Changing Climate.” The specific portion of the presented project focuses on research conducted in partnership with Native Villages in the Copper River region of Alaska from 2021 to 2024. Through guided participatory mapping sessions, community members have contributed to creating hazard maps identifying key risks such as flooding, erosion, fire, and infrastructure concerns. These sessions aimed to understand local risk perceptions better and improve community disaster awareness and preparedness. By combining field-based research, co-produced local knowledge, and educational initiatives, this project aims to improve seismic resilience and enhance the capacity of Arctic communities to adapt to environmental changes. This presentation reviews the project’s methodology, findings, and broader societal impacts to date, with a particular focus on the intersection of science, local community knowledge, and disaster management.