27 March 2025 | 08:30 - 10:00 (MDT)
Open Session - HYBRID
Room: UMC Third Floor - 384
Organisers: Laura Landrum (NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA); Andy Newman (NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA); Kaare Erickson (Ikaagun Engagement, USA)
Session Description:
As the Arctic continues to experience rapid climate change, Arctic communities are navigating these climatic changes along with social, economical, and geopolitical changes and with knowledge systems different from the western scientists who produce and run climate models.
Climate model simulations represent different possible earth system states given the specified external forcings, and information from these models can help tell us about possible future climates. Humans, however, do not tend to experience “climate change” on the large geographic and temporal scales represented in climate models so much as through conditions that are considered extreme on human scales. Some extreme conditions may coincide with geophysical statistical extremes such as typhoons, heat waves, or flooding. Other extreme conditions, however, may be due to longer-term yet extreme system-wide changes (e.g. diminishing spring sea ice in the Bering Sea, Bering Strait, Chukchi Sea areas along with extreme changes in access to traditional foods), or extreme events compounded by longer-term dramatic changes (e.g. strong storms coinciding with permafrost thaw and sea ice decrease and thus leading to extreme coastal erosion).
This session aims to explore methods to better integrate information from earth system models with information from traditional ecological knowledge to better inform adaptive measures in the rapidly changing Arctic environment. This encompasses topics on downscaling of simulated environmental conditions for local applications, perspectives on informing model developments with Indigenous knowledge, and information on the process of working together across different knowledge systems.
Instructions for Speakers: Oral presentations in this session should be at most 8-minutes in length, with an additional 2-3 minutes for questions (unless more detailed instructions are provided by session conveners). See more detailed presenter instructions here.
Oral Presentations:
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unfold_moreThe Arctic Rivers Project: A co-produced assessment of the climate sensitivity of Alaskan & Yukon rivers and fish to support resilient Indigenous communities — Keith Musselman
Keith Musselman 1
1 University of Colorado BoulderFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
Northern communities in Alaska and Canada rely upon rivers to support diverse and complex social, subsistence, and economic systems. As the Arctic and its rivers continue to warm, the ultimate impacts on people, their fisheries, and winter travel corridors are highly uncertain. Improved understanding of the ongoing and possible future changes requires close partnership among Indigenous communities, decision makers, and organizations and researchers from diverse scientific disciplines and knowledge systems. We present results from the Arctic Rivers Project, which strives to increase collective understanding of the impacts of climate change on rivers, fish, and Indigenous communities across Alaska and the Yukon River basin. This is accomplished by combining Indigenous community-based monitoring, a chain of multidisciplinary models, and narratives of change from Indigenous community members and decision makers. Working in a co-production framework guided by an Indigenous Advisory Council, we have developed model data of historical and projected future (mid-century) conditions of climate, snow cover, streamflow, river temperature, river ice, and the impacts that projected future conditions may have on multiple subsistence fish species. The results are produced at community and watershed scales across the Yukon River basin and much of Alaska. Through engagement with Indigenous communities, the results are being combined with community-level perspectives, experiences, and knowledge to craft storylines of Arctic change and community resilience. This approach seeks to make the quantitative simulated future conditions more tangible and applicable to community-level adaptation planning.
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unfold_moreIntegrating Traditional Knowledge and Climate Modeling to Map Future Risks to Alaskan Tribal Resources — Jaimlyn Sypniewski
Jaimlyn Sypniewski 1; Wang Hailong 2
1 Oregon State University, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; 2 Pacific Northwest LaboratoryFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
As the Arctic faces rapid climatic shifts, Indigenous communities are experiencing extreme environmental changes. Affecting both daily lives and traditional practices. Current climate models often operate on scales that are disconnected from these local experiences, making it difficult to apply large-scale model data to community-level adaptation strategies. This research uses downscaled global climate models, including simulations from Arctic CORDEX and RASM models, to create relevant indices that support Alaska Native communities in the Arctic. These indices, such as consecutive days without rain to predict dust events, aim to provide actionable insights into the impacts of climate change on daily life. By integrating Indigenous Traditional Ecological Knowledge (ITEK), this study bridges the gap between climate model outputs and community observations. Local observations such as warmer springs leading to larger berry harvests are then tied directly to climate variables like temperature and precipitation thresholds, along with accounting for both internal climate variability and externally forced climate drivers. These observations are then incorporated into species distribution models to drive predictions on resource availability, such as berry growth. The hypothesis is that climate variables observed on the ground should correspond with predictive outputs in the models, providing a clearer understanding of environmental impacts on subsistence practices. By merging the predictive power of earth system models with the deep contextual specificity of TEK, this research helps to bridge the divide between model scientific outputs and the lived realities of Arctic communities.
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unfold_moreAnalyzing Climate Variables Impacting Potential Whaling Opportunities in Utqiagvik, Alaska — Sydney Lin
Sydney Lin 1
1 Vanderbilt UniversityFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
Rapid climate change in the Arctic poses significant threats to traditional whaling practices vital to Indigenous communities. In particular, the presence and thickness of sea ice, as well as wind speed that impacts waves on open water are important factors for determining potential whaling opportunities. This study investigates historic climate factors and future climate trends impacting whaling safety and feasibility in Utqiagvik, Alaska. Using historical daily data from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the frequency of wind speeds that exceed safe limits across different seasons and years is analyzed, revealing patterns of increased risk for Indigenous hunters. Sea ice variables are also studied, revealing a steady decline of sea ice concentration and thickness in the area overall since 1980. The same climate variables are also analyzed in different model versions and forcing scenarios to establish their robustness and the critical thresholds that may influence whaling activities in Utqiagvik. This research highlights the impact that climate change has on cultural traditions and the ways in which climate model data may assist Arctic communities as they are forced to consider adaptive strategies for activities that are critical to their cultures and livelihoods.
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unfold_moreSt. Lawrence Island Yupik Knowledge of Sea Ice and Weather Impacts on Sivuqaq Spring Boating — Kitrea P. Takata-Glushkoff
Kitrea P. Takata-Glushkoff 1; Eddie Qagughaaq Ungott 2; Pekennaq Travis Kaningok Sr. 2; Andrew R. Mahoney 1; Shauna BurnSilver 3
1 University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute; 2 Native Village of Gambell; 3 Arizona State University School of Human Evolution and Social ChangeFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
Pan-Arctic sea ice extent is declining and models predict sea ice variability will continue to increase. What do these trends mean for residents of the St. Lawrence Island Yupik community of Sivuqaq (Gambell), Alaska?
St. Lawrence Island Yupik hunters’ knowledge of the sea ice environment is the culmination of not only their individual observations and syntheses, but also generations of knowledge-sharing. Each day, hunters interpret the local sea ice and weather conditions to determine whether it is safe to go boating offshore to harvest neqepik (Yupik foods) such as walrus, seal, and bowhead whale. Boating, a part of subsistence livelihood, is integral to thriving food sovereignty, Yupik cultural traditions, community wellbeing, and intergenerational knowledge-sharing. Now, as local sea ice and weather conditions change, Yupik hunters are adapting to fewer boatable days.
We highlight Yupik hunters’ expertise of how changing sea ice and weather conditions are impacting spring boat-based hunting in Sivuqaq, Alaska. First, we describe the sea ice, wind, current, visibility, and temperature conditions that are ideal vs. no-go for spring boating. Second, we show how the number of ideal spring boating days has declined over time. Working toward knowledge coproduction methods, our team of Yupik hunters, sea ice geoscientists, and social scientists emphasizes the results of interviews with boat captains and crew members during spring 2023 and spring 2024. We further compare daily local environmental observations for days when boats went out vs. when they did not go out during the 2023–2024 ice season.
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unfold_moreCommunity Climate Change Resilience Planning as Informed by Native Alaskan Adaptations and Experiences — Alie Minium & Jenny Bacon
Jenny Bacon 1; Alie Minium 1; Diamond Ebanks 2; Nicole Herman-Mercer 2; Dylan Blaskey 3; Keith Musselman 4; Sam Neitlich 2; Payton Thomas 4; Ryan Toohey 2
1 ORISE; 2 USGS; 3 EPA; 4 University of Colorado BoulderFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
Alaska has experienced negative effects from climate change at a rapid pace. Changing ice conditions, rising temperatures, lowered fish populations, and more, have resulted in direct harm to Native Alaskan communities’ ability to subsist and thrive using traditional methods reaching back thousands of years. Current scientific modeling is limited in its ability to show localized impacts on rural ecosystems and it does not incorporate on-ground observations. Despite these limitations, modeling can be helpful in understanding potential future environmental events and conditions. By including local narratives and Indigenous Knowledge, informed through the coproduction of knowledge with rural communities, we can better understand current adaptation strategies and connect them to climate predictions. This bridges the modeling gap and further informs future climate resilience planning in Alaska. Our study focused on three Inupiaq and Yup’ik communities, Aniak, Elim, and St. Mary’s, to connect lived experiences of climate events to newly produced modeling data via a series of workshops and in-depth interviews. Small groups in each village participated in workshops to discuss and sort impacts of environmental events. Results from community workshops were shared with workshop participants and others within the local Tribal and City government. Themes identified in workshops were used to structure follow up in-depth interviews with workshop participants and others identified via snowball sampling. Here we will present findings that weave community knowledge, observations, and priorities with our model results to create products that are useful for adaptation planning in these communities.
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unfold_moreModel and human views of tundra snow cover — Richard Essery
Richard Essery 1
1 University of EdinburghFormat: Oral in-person
Abstract:
With the primary aim of representing how snow on land influences the atmosphere, Earth System Models have a very limited view of snow on land; they try to predict the fraction of the ground that is covered with snow, but have no concept of how snow is distributed across the landscape. Remote sensing and models of limited areas can approach the scales experienced by people living, working and playing in the landscape, but still with limited information on how the properties of snow on the ground are shaped by wind, temperature, sun and rain. Rather than a presentation of knowledge, this presentation will aim to generate conversation based on a presentation of ignorance: of what snow models can and cannot do, of what people would like models to be able to tell them, and of how views can be combined to make models better and more useful.
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unfold_moreClimate model - Inuit traditional knowledge connections in the Western Canadian Arctic — Nadja Steiner
Nadja Steiner 1
1 Institute of Ocean Scicences, Fisheries and Oceasn Canada, Sidney, BC, Canada; Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, CanadaFormat: Oral virtual
Abstract:
Over the last decade we have seen good advancement in Earth System Modelling and climate model downscaling, including increased resolution, improved representation of biogeochemistry, and generally more complex process representations. In addition, scenario uncertainty has decreased, making both a very high as well as a very low emission scenario unlikely (if not improbable). Despite these advancements, our communication with the public, specifically Arctic Inuit communities, remains inadequate. In some ways this can be linked to different knowledge systems and presentation practices, which requires us researchers to get a better understanding of Indigenous world views compared to academic research views. It also requires us to better understand the impacts of environmental changes and communication needs on a community level. Here, I will present an overview of collaborative research in Canada which focuses on understanding impacts of expected climate change on Inuit subsistence species and harvesting activities using traditional knowledge, climate modeling and observational tools. The research includes many collaborators from the Inuvialuit Settlement region, Federal government and Universities. I will outline how Indigenous knowledge tools and world views combined with climate projections and academic tools may support conservation planning, fisheries agreements and adaptation approaches, and hence provide a pathway for collaborative and co-produced climate change research in the lead-up to the next IPY. The merging of traditional knowledge and academic sciences and the move from academic visualization tools to story lines is a key component in these objectives.
Poster Presentations (during Poster Exhibit and Session on Wednesday 26 March):
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unfold_moreTwo-Eyed Seeing in Arctic Research: Integrating Iñupiaq Perspectives and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in Utqiaġvik, AK — Charlotte Nour Kastoun
Charlotte Nour Kastoun 1; Meghan Schaberg 2; Laura Landrum 3; Megan Franke 2; Jim Hurrell 2
1 Cornell University; 2 Colorado State University; 3 UCARFormat: Poster in-person
Poster number: #30
Abstract:
Previous studies address large-scale climate impacts in the Arctic exacerbated by Arctic Amplification, most with little communication with local Indigenous communities or centering of Indigenous Traditional Ecological Knowledge (ITEK). Here, we explored a different methodology for conducting Arctic research by centering Two-Eyed Seeing, a principle in which Indigenous Knowledge and Western science serve as complementary means of understanding natural phenomena. We synthesize data from 16 interviews with Iñupiaq elders and community members in Utqiaġvik, AK, published on Project Jukebox (University of Alaska Fairbanks) to examine changes in wind strength and direction, sea ice extent, and the timing of ice freeze-up, while understanding implications for whaling and cultural health. We used hourly and monthly data from ERA5 to examine temporal changes in winds and sea ice in the region surrounding Utqiaġvik from 1970-2023. We found that ice freeze-up, which previously began in Oct, now begins in Nov-Dec. We found modest but statistically significant increases in wind speed during those months. We connected these findings with Indigenous observations of thinning ice and the disappearance of Piqaluyak (multi-year ice) and Ivuniq (pressure ridges). We find changes in wind direction and percentage of hourly wind gusts above 20mph (the community’s threshold for safety) during the spring whaling season (Mar–May). Through this work, we highlight the complementary relationship between reanalysis data and community observations of the changing climate’s effect on local sea ice and whaling, and how the two ways of knowing can be bridged to enrich our understanding of the Arctic.